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Inflation under control

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PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s rising inflation, which surged to its highest in more than a year in July, is unlikely to hinder the country’s third quarter (3Q) gross domestic product (GDP) performance for 2022.

Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams said he expects subsidies and price controls to continue for the rest of the year, thus keeping inflation under control.

“Inflationary pressures are easing worldwide with oil, palm oil, freight costs, agriculture costs, grains and feedstock prices all falling. Supply-chain pressures are easing too. So inflation is not the issue.

“The 3Q GDP performance will be driven by policy tightening, external demand and a normalisation of spending after the bulge in June,” he told StarBiz.

Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Carmelo Ferlito believes that the effects of inflation will manifest through the deceleration of private consumption, with the situation potentially worsening in 4Q.

“It depends very much on the struggle between cost of living, raw materials and general uncertainty versus the mood brought in by the growth momentum and, hopefully, the end of lockdowns.”

Over the short term, HELP University economist Paolo Casadio said the rise in employment and the momentum of consumption stemming from the reopening of the economy will help to outweigh the impact of inflation.

“In the longer term, we will see more moderate consumption, in line with the fundamentals of disposable income,” he said.

Malaysia’s inflation jumped 4.4% to 127.9 in July 2022, as the cost of food continued to accelerate.

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The increase in the consumer price index, the highest since April 2021, was in line with the median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts.

The Statistics Department said the increase in July’s inflation was also due to the low base effect last year as a result of the electricity bill discount from 5% to 40% according to total usage given to domestic consumers.

For July, the food index rose 6.9%, serving as the main contributor to the increase in overall inflation.

Core inflation and inflation without fuel registered an increase of 3.4% and 4.2% respectively in July 2022, as compared to the same month of the preceding year.

On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.4% as compared to June.

For the January to July period, inflation increased 2.8% as compared to the same period last year.

UOB senior economist Julia Goh and economist Loke Siew Ting in a recent note said they are raising their 2022 full-year inflation estimate to 3.5% from 3% previously.

They said the revision comes following the full reflection of price adjustments for various price-administered items and higher-than-expected inflation outturns from May to June.

“In addition, the combination of factors including the previous year’s low base effects, still-high commodity prices, persistent currency weakness and intensifying cost pass-through effects will continuously keep headline inflation above 4% levels for the remaining months of the year.

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